This is to lots of my friends who would like to use the commodities to their benefit. They may have varying interest like making a quick buck in the trading to buying coffee estates. I hope to give a pointer with this attempt.
To understand where we will go from here, we will have understand where we are and in what circumstances we are in. I cannot see the present circumstances aside from the inflation point of view [forgive me!]. I must be sounding like a broken record. But I do not mind repeating, for it is worth.
As we move into the New Year of 2006, the situation has only gotten worse, from the same time last year. It is to be expected, as the situation will 'spiral' out of control. By 'spiral' I mean growth in the compounded rate with expanding base. The money supply of the US is growing at the rate of 8% per annum. That means the dollar-supply is increasing by 8% every year. This would naturally mean a reduction in the 'value' of the dollar. With all the Federal Bank's intervention, the inevitable can only be delayed but not destiny will be played out. Maktub, as Arabs say.
The situation is going to be worse. In future, the value of the Dollar is on a downhill course, no matter the present support and up trend. It will go down because of the trade-dollar deficits, increasing money supply, increasing dollar-supply. The other factors that will have indirect but equally important impact are the increase in the interest rates, the collapse of the housing market [a big employment generator], the collapse of the credit bubble [mortgages, credit cards etc], the decline in the growth rate, the increase in the inflation, the precipitous decline in the stock markets, the rise in the commodity prices like crude oil, the rise of the Euro and Japan as alternative investment destinations etc.
Any of these could trigger the cascading events that will ultimately pop the bubble of the US's asset-growth-led growth.
If the situation at present is so precarious where is the way out. Where is the lifeboat, if the ship is to sink? Perhaps, in our discussions we may ask, what can save our lives and act as lifeboats. The answer clearly is the commodities.
The commodities are the real world business. For instance, you cannot multiply the one tonne of rice by copy-pasting it, or using the copier. There are only as much rice available on the planet Earth as much has been grown and is fit for consumption. There can be no more. Rice cannot be manufactured in the printing press like the dollar bills are manufactured. Rice has its intrinsic worth, on any day it will quench the hunger of man. It will assure the possessor that he would not have to go hungry. The intrinsic worth is constant along with the future value because it cannot be replicated. It offers security. Welcome, to the slow growth, down right boring, non-AC, non-glamorous, dirt-land, hard working and backbreaking industry - Commodities.
The real value of the commodities lies in the fact, that it cannot be replicated with out the actual production or superior substitution. When the lure of Fiat money is over, and the world rises to the declining currencies of all nature [not just dollar], the commodities will be the real world assets the people will run after.
Would it be safe to invest in commodities like coffee now, when the market is down? Like all economics the commodity cycle takes place in a cycle of over-supply and deficient-supply. During the over-supply periods - the boom times, the market is filled with the new producers who are attracted by the higher prices. These new producers also bring with them the new supply, which will decrease the high prices. The new production capacities over-hang is evident until the demand for the commodity overtakes supply or the supply decreases. The supply could decrease in various forms like closures of mines, non-viability of the operations, cutting down the plantations, switching the plantations to new crops etc. All in all, the commodity markets should be entered when the markets/prices are beginning to find their supports/legs in order to make the run for peaks. The bottoms are usually the place, where the weak or unsophisticated producers wound up production and sell-out, and the supply is barely needful for the demand. Any increase in the demand results in sharper and sharper increase in prices later in the cycle.
The time is ripe for the investors and everybody to protect their hard earned money, by having some part of it in commodities. It is perfectly reasonable investment. What if the US does not implode or what if the commodities don’t take off?? The investment in the commodities is not entirely for the returns on the capital, but it is mainly for the preservation of the capital. This asset class will protect and give you major returns over a period of time, when every body around you would be loosing their heads. This capital preservation will be insurance you would have to take to face the tough times ahead.
:) Falkor
To understand where we will go from here, we will have understand where we are and in what circumstances we are in. I cannot see the present circumstances aside from the inflation point of view [forgive me!]. I must be sounding like a broken record. But I do not mind repeating, for it is worth.
As we move into the New Year of 2006, the situation has only gotten worse, from the same time last year. It is to be expected, as the situation will 'spiral' out of control. By 'spiral' I mean growth in the compounded rate with expanding base. The money supply of the US is growing at the rate of 8% per annum. That means the dollar-supply is increasing by 8% every year. This would naturally mean a reduction in the 'value' of the dollar. With all the Federal Bank's intervention, the inevitable can only be delayed but not destiny will be played out. Maktub, as Arabs say.
The situation is going to be worse. In future, the value of the Dollar is on a downhill course, no matter the present support and up trend. It will go down because of the trade-dollar deficits, increasing money supply, increasing dollar-supply. The other factors that will have indirect but equally important impact are the increase in the interest rates, the collapse of the housing market [a big employment generator], the collapse of the credit bubble [mortgages, credit cards etc], the decline in the growth rate, the increase in the inflation, the precipitous decline in the stock markets, the rise in the commodity prices like crude oil, the rise of the Euro and Japan as alternative investment destinations etc.
Any of these could trigger the cascading events that will ultimately pop the bubble of the US's asset-growth-led growth.
If the situation at present is so precarious where is the way out. Where is the lifeboat, if the ship is to sink? Perhaps, in our discussions we may ask, what can save our lives and act as lifeboats. The answer clearly is the commodities.
The commodities are the real world business. For instance, you cannot multiply the one tonne of rice by copy-pasting it, or using the copier. There are only as much rice available on the planet Earth as much has been grown and is fit for consumption. There can be no more. Rice cannot be manufactured in the printing press like the dollar bills are manufactured. Rice has its intrinsic worth, on any day it will quench the hunger of man. It will assure the possessor that he would not have to go hungry. The intrinsic worth is constant along with the future value because it cannot be replicated. It offers security. Welcome, to the slow growth, down right boring, non-AC, non-glamorous, dirt-land, hard working and backbreaking industry - Commodities.
The real value of the commodities lies in the fact, that it cannot be replicated with out the actual production or superior substitution. When the lure of Fiat money is over, and the world rises to the declining currencies of all nature [not just dollar], the commodities will be the real world assets the people will run after.
Would it be safe to invest in commodities like coffee now, when the market is down? Like all economics the commodity cycle takes place in a cycle of over-supply and deficient-supply. During the over-supply periods - the boom times, the market is filled with the new producers who are attracted by the higher prices. These new producers also bring with them the new supply, which will decrease the high prices. The new production capacities over-hang is evident until the demand for the commodity overtakes supply or the supply decreases. The supply could decrease in various forms like closures of mines, non-viability of the operations, cutting down the plantations, switching the plantations to new crops etc. All in all, the commodity markets should be entered when the markets/prices are beginning to find their supports/legs in order to make the run for peaks. The bottoms are usually the place, where the weak or unsophisticated producers wound up production and sell-out, and the supply is barely needful for the demand. Any increase in the demand results in sharper and sharper increase in prices later in the cycle.
The time is ripe for the investors and everybody to protect their hard earned money, by having some part of it in commodities. It is perfectly reasonable investment. What if the US does not implode or what if the commodities don’t take off?? The investment in the commodities is not entirely for the returns on the capital, but it is mainly for the preservation of the capital. This asset class will protect and give you major returns over a period of time, when every body around you would be loosing their heads. This capital preservation will be insurance you would have to take to face the tough times ahead.
:) Falkor
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