It has been few days since I read a book on LTCM disaster. Like everything a calm was seeping into me, with the gradual forgetting of contents. Then here comes the shocker, which pokes me grimacing and asks me “so, you think you were safe bozo? hahaha"
LTCM was an error of judgment from the managers of the fund. But it was history of repetition by the banks that freely funded the fund. Are we close to LTCM repetition on gigantic proportions? A proportion from which we may not be able to bail out from?
In the guise on an answer lies the first shocker. It begins of trying to explain the flat-yield curve in the scenario of rising rates. It states "why is anybody willing to hold this low interest rate paper if the borrowers issuing it are so vulnerable to default risk? The borrowers don't actually issue it directly. Instead, much of the worst credit risk in the U.S. financial system is actually swapped into instruments that end up being partially backed by the U.S. government." It goes on to add, "These are held by investors precisely because they piggyback on the good faith and credit of Uncle Sam." Right after reading chapters of Russian credit default, the nuclear nation default, the 'impossible' default- the connection seems ominous. The US default?!!!
Oh! that was mild.
"****bank is federally insured at the depositor level, and “too big to fail” at the institutional level, Uncle Sam is now a counterparty that effectively shares the risk in the case that ****** Company or homeowners default." This could well have been taken out the LTCM debacle. Government or Central Banks only come to the rescue till the day they dont come to rescue. There is no binding authority on these institutions that they have to rescue. Rescuing helps in the elections and politics. But in case of debacles in future, LTCM will be peanuts in size. Counting on the government's implicit rescue (govt will bail-out attitude) is the roadmap to nuclear disaster zone.
That hurt! Now the knockout!
"over half of the world's trading in the credit swaps market is concentrated among five banks...." "The trouble of one could quickly infect the others" "...is ultimately and perhaps somewhat inadvertently backed by the U.S. government."
The Swap market was $37Trillion market in 2003. The rates of growth of swaps are astronomical. It could easily have gone above $50Tr market. Any unwinding of this market in a hurry will make LTCM look like a school play. It is like nuclear weapons going off in rapid succession in the financial landscape.
Imagine……….
:) Falkor
LTCM was an error of judgment from the managers of the fund. But it was history of repetition by the banks that freely funded the fund. Are we close to LTCM repetition on gigantic proportions? A proportion from which we may not be able to bail out from?
In the guise on an answer lies the first shocker. It begins of trying to explain the flat-yield curve in the scenario of rising rates. It states "why is anybody willing to hold this low interest rate paper if the borrowers issuing it are so vulnerable to default risk? The borrowers don't actually issue it directly. Instead, much of the worst credit risk in the U.S. financial system is actually swapped into instruments that end up being partially backed by the U.S. government." It goes on to add, "These are held by investors precisely because they piggyback on the good faith and credit of Uncle Sam." Right after reading chapters of Russian credit default, the nuclear nation default, the 'impossible' default- the connection seems ominous. The US default?!!!
Oh! that was mild.
"****bank is federally insured at the depositor level, and “too big to fail” at the institutional level, Uncle Sam is now a counterparty that effectively shares the risk in the case that ****** Company or homeowners default." This could well have been taken out the LTCM debacle. Government or Central Banks only come to the rescue till the day they dont come to rescue. There is no binding authority on these institutions that they have to rescue. Rescuing helps in the elections and politics. But in case of debacles in future, LTCM will be peanuts in size. Counting on the government's implicit rescue (govt will bail-out attitude) is the roadmap to nuclear disaster zone.
That hurt! Now the knockout!
"over half of the world's trading in the credit swaps market is concentrated among five banks...." "The trouble of one could quickly infect the others" "...is ultimately and perhaps somewhat inadvertently backed by the U.S. government."
The Swap market was $37Trillion market in 2003. The rates of growth of swaps are astronomical. It could easily have gone above $50Tr market. Any unwinding of this market in a hurry will make LTCM look like a school play. It is like nuclear weapons going off in rapid succession in the financial landscape.
Imagine……….
:) Falkor
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