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A philosopher trades the market.



I do not have much love for Philosophy, especially of the metaphysical kind. I have found Philosophy to be stating the simplest facts in so many ways that the output is a complex jumble of metaphysical imagination. The end result is spreading the nuggets so thin, the core is lost in the multitude. And as a result the fact ends up becoming an imagination.

Thankfully, market is not that deep. Not as deep as other questions that we try to answer in philosophy. Playing market is a simple game of discipline and hard work. But so obtuse are its interpretations, that tomes have been filled up already and more libraries need to be built in future too. Market has been pushed to the realms of deep-field.

I have been in market for so long that I don't know if there is anything well that I can do better in my life. But comparatively, my 3 month only puppy dog would be a better trader. If I follow him, or better let him manage my account, I will be rich beyond dreams.

Before you take offense and taunt me - I am a technical trader. Fundamentals to me is a deep-field*. I like to keep it simple**.

If I program, say a trending indicator like MACD, to show a chocolate when it is positive and bark once and show a stick when it turns negative and bark twice: he will be richer than me in no time! I am pretty sure this should work. The sad part is no matter how much I bark, I wont be able to beat my boy. Its there in the head! (or too much head)

If the above scenario has remotest chance of succeeding, a big chance I feel, now this begs a question, why then am I philosophical. Why do I need tonnes of data garbage, which my school headmaster summed up in a word - discipline. Which, as the stories go, frail grandfathers thought from their hospital beds.

Why do I have to seek solace in the intellectually challenging business writing. When I may be better off not reading any or better know nothing other than buy-on-chocolate and sell-on-stick.

I don't have an answer. But possible it is because of the notion that making money is the toughest job. We are brought up with the notion you cant find diamonds on the rough. So, perhaps we are conditioned to believe, even the market has to be tough, making money is tough, being rich is tough. Greed and fear make the parameters difficult to predict. Perhaps simply, my cross-checking (risk management, in other words) is a defensive mechanism.

Can market be so complicated. Universe cant be so complicated. Our DNAs carry more information but may be few bytes long. Our organs are made with simplest configuration. A simple rule defines gravity, tides, solar system***. Why then the crowd behavior has to have so complex an analysis. In one of the Feynman talks (posted earlier), he says there is an initial expansion of complexity and then an integration in to simplicity.

Prophecy is a futile exercise. Even trying prediction with out understanding probabilities is frivolous exertion. Following of the simplest of rules, nothing different than purest business sense, should do the trick.

Business sense may not do the trick in the intra-day, though from a perspective it is very much needed too. I feel so, therefore I depend on technicals. Technical analysis can paralyze in no time. The vision is lost in the squiggles. Common sense gets whipsawed among moving averages.

Simplicity may do the trick. If it can do for systems of the world, then it may work for me too. If only I can forget!!!

:) Falkor

* For example, I have never understood what a PE has to do with intra-day. Or what Debt-Equity has to do with my being short or long.
** With handful of track able (in relevant timescale) parameters
*** Please feel free to correct me
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