Skip to main content

YEN - likely to gain



If the GBP and Aussie were strong against dollar like most of the other currencies then Yen was a spectacular exception. USD has actually gained on Yen when it has fallen against most of the currencies. en

This does not bear good news for Yen, which is loosing ground against a weakening Dollar. There has been hue and cry about how low the Yen is. The issue is likely to gather more steam and most probably the result will be the steady and gradual strengthening of Yen. The strengthening of the Yen is also inevitable because of the expected hike in the interest rates.

Technically, the Yen looks set for a rally. The expanding form that Yen gained from in Feb and its consequent rally in March has been retraced by 61.8%. Dollar was not able to break above the 120 barrier and has fallen again. The trend at present is clearly down for dollar. There would be shorting opportunities in the dollar on a bounce up to 120. Even on the breach of 120, the dollar is not like to show strength. For the dollar to gain massive strength, the level of 122 are crucial.

Conclusion: Short opportunities on any rise up to 120. The likely target is in the range of 116-116.5. The passive stop-loss to be above 122. The aggressive trading stop loss above 120.
Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Cognitive rules of business presentations

In his recent book, Clear and to the Point, Kosslyn explained that the four rules of PowerPoint are: The Goldilocks Rule, The Rudolph Rule, The Rule of Four, and the Birds of a Feather Rule. Here's how they work. The Goldilocks Rule refers to presenting the "just right" amount of data. Never include more information than your audience needs in a visual image. As an example, Kosslyn showed two graphs of real estate prices over time. One included ten different numbers, one for each year. The other included two numbers: a peak price, and the current price. For the purposes of a presentation about today's prices relative to peak price, those numbers were the only ones necessary. The Rudolph Rule refers to simple ways you can make information stand out and guide your audience to important details -- the way Rudolph the reindeer's red nose stood out from the other reindeers' and led them. If you're presenting a piece of relevant data in a list, why not mak...
Post a Comment
Read more

Monetary inflation, Spiritual devaluation

Its been sometime I have been trying to make some special people understand the evils of inflation. Inflation is an abstract subject most of us dont know about, let alone understand the technicalities amidst jargons. I have in my previous post have briefly touched the social part of inflation but never in a concentrated way. I understand what my friends mean when they say "tell me in layman’s language." It is not a heartening sign, that they avoid technicalities. But it could well be that knowing where they stand, their role and understanding the social changes in the light of inflation may motivate them to understand the term "inflation." This is just to highlight the brief points. First and the foremost, is there any link between inflation numbers and society. Yes. The relation is same as the relation between society and money. What is money? Money is an easy means of exchange. If I am selling my horses to a pig-farmer and I am not interested in taking pigs in ret...
2 comments
Read more

Unprecedented External Demand Shock Underway

India’s export growth averaged 24.8% over the last three years, driven by strong global growth. However, over the last three months, export growth has decelerated sharply. While until recently the strong demand from emerging markets including Latin America, Emerging Europe, the Middle East and Africa ensured that export growth remained healthy, over the last three months disruptions in the macro environment of these economies have been evident. Apart from weakening demand, exports have also been affected by the lack of availability of foreign trade credit and inventory liquidation. India’s exports declined by 12.1%Y in October 2008 compared with 10.4% in September and 26.9% in August. While we expect some improvement in the second half of 2009, exports are likely to be unusually weak over the next six months. We now expect exports to decline by 5.3%Y in 2009 compared with 12.7% in 2008 (estimated) and 23.1% in 2007 Excerpt source
Post a Comment
Read more