SIMPLICITY
If you can’t make it simple then it ain’t worth making. So said a wise old man -- but I know not who. Anyway I try to follow that motto as best as I can in these commentaries. That is also a major reason I am a technician. Technical analysis can be very simple (but too many try to make it difficult). On the other hand, fundamental analysis is just difficult -- just difficult. My hat off to those who can master it and are able to profit from it.
You no doubt have noticed that in these commentaries I use the same technical concepts over and over and over again. They get to the point of being monotonous. However, they are the prime concepts in technical analysis and those presented here are among the simplest. They are trend (in the form of the moving average), trend strength (in the form of momentum) and speculative interest (in the form of volume). There are other technical concepts (Relative Strength comes to mind) but if you master these three you are well on your way to stock market profits with a minimum of risk, there is always risk and surprises.
Once you know the trend of a stock or commodity your odds of profit are greatly enhanced by trading “with the established trend”. An appropriate moving average line is the simplest trend identifier. As long as the stock or commodity is above the moving average line and the line continues to point upward you have a bullish trend. As long as the stock or commodity is below the moving average line and the line continues to point downward you have a bearish trend. You then trade in the direction of the trend, long or short.
There are different ways of defining what momentum indicators are or do (there are literally dozens of them). Their primary reason for existing is to warn you of potential danger ahead. I see them as defining the strength of the recent price action and if such strength is increasing or decreasing. Increasing strength suggests caviar and champagne while decreasing strength suggests bread and water. Most momentum indicators DO NOT by themselves define a reversal of trend but they are a powerful warning indicator and should not be ignored. Momentum indicators should be giving you the same story as the trend indicator, for confirmation of trend. Any difference between the two and you have a potential for a trend reversal.
When using a moving average to define a trend one should use an appropriate time period average to correspond to the investment time period of one’s investment strategy. You would not use a 200 day moving average if your investment time horizon is the intermediate term. The same should be applied to the momentum indicator. Far to often investors use a momentum based upon a time period that is not appropriate for their investment strategy. Why use a 13 day RSI, as an example, if your investment strategy is for intermediate or long term investing?
The third concept is speculative interest in the form of volume of trading activity. There are very few simple volume indicators but some do exist. The indicator should define for you if the speculative interest is on the upside or downside. This speculative interest should be in the direction of the price movement, again to confirm the trend. Few serious price trends last long without this investor interest being in the trend direction.
from Merv Burak Commentary
If you can’t make it simple then it ain’t worth making. So said a wise old man -- but I know not who. Anyway I try to follow that motto as best as I can in these commentaries. That is also a major reason I am a technician. Technical analysis can be very simple (but too many try to make it difficult). On the other hand, fundamental analysis is just difficult -- just difficult. My hat off to those who can master it and are able to profit from it.
You no doubt have noticed that in these commentaries I use the same technical concepts over and over and over again. They get to the point of being monotonous. However, they are the prime concepts in technical analysis and those presented here are among the simplest. They are trend (in the form of the moving average), trend strength (in the form of momentum) and speculative interest (in the form of volume). There are other technical concepts (Relative Strength comes to mind) but if you master these three you are well on your way to stock market profits with a minimum of risk, there is always risk and surprises.
Once you know the trend of a stock or commodity your odds of profit are greatly enhanced by trading “with the established trend”. An appropriate moving average line is the simplest trend identifier. As long as the stock or commodity is above the moving average line and the line continues to point upward you have a bullish trend. As long as the stock or commodity is below the moving average line and the line continues to point downward you have a bearish trend. You then trade in the direction of the trend, long or short.
There are different ways of defining what momentum indicators are or do (there are literally dozens of them). Their primary reason for existing is to warn you of potential danger ahead. I see them as defining the strength of the recent price action and if such strength is increasing or decreasing. Increasing strength suggests caviar and champagne while decreasing strength suggests bread and water. Most momentum indicators DO NOT by themselves define a reversal of trend but they are a powerful warning indicator and should not be ignored. Momentum indicators should be giving you the same story as the trend indicator, for confirmation of trend. Any difference between the two and you have a potential for a trend reversal.
When using a moving average to define a trend one should use an appropriate time period average to correspond to the investment time period of one’s investment strategy. You would not use a 200 day moving average if your investment time horizon is the intermediate term. The same should be applied to the momentum indicator. Far to often investors use a momentum based upon a time period that is not appropriate for their investment strategy. Why use a 13 day RSI, as an example, if your investment strategy is for intermediate or long term investing?
The third concept is speculative interest in the form of volume of trading activity. There are very few simple volume indicators but some do exist. The indicator should define for you if the speculative interest is on the upside or downside. This speculative interest should be in the direction of the price movement, again to confirm the trend. Few serious price trends last long without this investor interest being in the trend direction.
from Merv Burak Commentary
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