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January Barometer - Statistical insignificance?



What I would like to watch out for is the January Barometer. It is the general perception and also statistical hypotheses that move of January usually signify if the markets would end up or down. I am interested in this for two reasons: first, if the markets move up, barometer is likely to be correct and is a relief; secondly, if the markets move down and barometer points to negative, it is interesting to question if the markets would be at these levels or below these levels 12 months from now. The most probable answer is – no. If for nothing, the stimulus and inflation would take care of the prices in longer term. The point is, January Barometer though has played out right in past few years is likely to miss out (isn’t that is what statistic is?!) this time. Of course, experts would argue, January Barometer is not 100% accurate and can’t be blamed.

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