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Showing posts from June, 2010

Gold - 4hr

Gold on 4hr is a rising wedge. Where could be the B/o?

A mess called California

It’s a story that’s being repeated all across California – and throughout the United States – as cash-strapped state and local governments grapple with collapsed tax revenues and swelling budget gaps. Mass layoffs, slashed health and welfare services, closed parks, crumbling superhighways and ever-larger public school class sizes are all part of the new normal. California’s fiscal hole is now so large that the state would have to liberate 168,000 prison inmates and permanently shutter 240 university and community college campuses to balance its budget in the fiscal year that begins July 1. Think of California as Greece on the Pacific: bankrupt and desperately needing a bailout.  Source: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/california-on-verge-of-system-failure/article1609891/

USDCHF - Live trades - Confused thoughts.

|Live trade - USDJPY

Pitchforks are holding brilliantly.

Live trade charts - GBPUSD

My shorts are stuck in the middle at 50% line.. Holding it for now. Tight stop

Technicals - Live trade thoughts

Some thoughts on USDCHF. Academic interest here, as these are ST charts.

Economic markets are not decoupled.

The strong rallies seen in the emerging market stocks are becoz of the feeling of decoupled from tensions and crisis in US and EU. It is not so. But the die-hards have a hard time to believe the consumption growth is not going to take it to new highs.  Somebody else also thinks so. Here is an excerpt from the report of Economic Intelligence on the issue Strong growth in many emerging markets in early 2010 has drawn new supporters to the idea that emerging economies can now power ahead independently of the developed world. Certainly, domestic demand in leading emerging economies is booming, partially underpinning the global recovery. However, this owes much to fiscal stimulus and loose monetary conditions. A sustainable rebalancing of emerging-market growth away from exports to the developed world will only be achieved gradually. In the interim it seems premature to expect emerging markets to drive global economic growth after the impact of temporary factors fades ..It goes on to ...

Equity / T-bill Divergence

Greenspan's warnings

Greenspan Warning #1 Greece is a wake-up call for the U.S. and most of the developed world. Greenspan says that Greece should drive U.S. authorities to make "a tectonic shift in fiscal policy." Agreed. Collapse of credit bubbles in Ireland, Spain, Greece, and Portugal could lead to those countries defaulting. ... So I expect at least one European country to go bankrupt in the next 12 months, and that will strike fear into the hearts of the central banks." Sure enough, Greece is bankrupt and others are now on the way, saved only by a bailout that could, in turn bankrupt Europe. Sovereign debt defaults are the next shoe to drop. ... Greece is rapidly sliding down the slope toward default. ... Spain is in trouble because it experienced its own gigantic housing bubble, one that has long-since popped. ... Then there's the U.K. Its budget deficit is running at 12 percent of GDP, the highest in the Group of 20 community of nations. ... And what about the US? The fiscal 2009...

Curious case of my trading template

In 2002, when I started traing the markets I had developed two-three templates which gave me very high success rates [>80%]. From 2002 to present, I have studied a lot - a lot - and have used various techniques including Elliot & Gann in my trading and reports. [With not as high success rate, but then I was still learning] But now, as I try and refine my trading systme and turn it into a mechanical trading system, my template is starting to look more like what it did in 2002! I am very surprised, totally aghast. I have done nothing new! All my interim efforts were just not required?! Becoz all these studies have not ADDED anything but are just SUBSTANTIATING what I perhaps always knew. Of course, there are new tricks and tweaks in the bag, but I am amazed at how the template which were consisted nothing more than few indicators (cleverly used, if I may say) is more robust than many exotic theories I have used there. More I am trying to refine the methods, more I am moving toward...

Afganisthan - Who's mine is it anyways?

The mineral wealth of Afghanisthan is back in the limelight but this time backed by all the media hype and hoopla expected off a White House propaganda. Those who know geology and the metals and minerals sector, know that Afghanisthan has always had unexplored possibilities but with Obama administration coming with a blatant number to justify and perhaps intensify its presence in the country is complete foolishiness. Playing the mineral rich card and good-cop card against the Russians and Chinese is the perhaps the perfect bet for Obama Administration to keep the support for Afghan operations going. But this is so fake, administration is making a good fool of itself. Here is a quick take of Casey's Investigative Reporter had to say: The $1 trillion figure is totally bogus. A "small team of Pentagon officials and American geologists" cannot possibly have drilled off these deposits, let alone done the engineering required to value them. At the very best, they'v...

Obama - A narcissitic problem

Obama's Audacity, Narcissm & serious disassociation with reality will destroy equity markets. Not to forget that the three legs that formed the global recovery of 2009-Europe, China  and US have come apart at the hinges. Expect stocks to plunge 10 per cent or more in the short term. The Western financials will be the worst hit, once again...followed by Real Estate. I am very embarrassed to admit that I would have voted for Mr. Thaksin in 2001 and for Mr. Obama in 2008. (James Tisch warned me about Mr. Obama's economic policies, and my late friend Michael Schwabacher told me even before Mr. Obama was elected that he is completely ignorant and conceited, and suffers from severe narcissism.) I would have voted for Mr. Obama because, at the time, I thought he would improve America's international relations and defuse geopolitical tensions by reducing the US military presence overseas. I also hoped that he would clean up… Ordinary people are "shocked" and p... (exp...