Greenspan Warning #1
Greece is a wake-up call for the U.S. and most of the developed world.
Greenspan says that Greece should drive U.S. authorities to make "a tectonic shift in fiscal policy." Agreed.
Collapse of credit bubbles in Ireland, Spain, Greece, and Portugal could lead to those countries defaulting. ... So I expect at least one European country to go bankrupt in the next 12 months, and that will strike fear into the hearts of the central banks." Sure enough, Greece is bankrupt and others are now on the way, saved only by a bailout that could, in turn bankrupt Europe.
Sovereign debt defaults are the next shoe to drop. ... Greece is rapidly sliding down the slope toward default. ... Spain is in trouble because it experienced its own gigantic housing bubble, one that has long-since popped. ... Then there's the U.K. Its budget deficit is running at 12 percent of GDP, the highest in the Group of 20 community of nations. ... And what about the US? The fiscal 2009 budget deficit here soared to $1.4 trillion, the worst ever.
The next big victim could be the one country for which no bailout is possible — the United States.
Greenspan Warning #2
The contagion is ALREADY reaching the United States.
How do you know if the sovereign debt crisis has hit the United States, or not? To the lay observer, it's often murky. But to an interest-rate analyst, the clues are straightforward: When the federal government has to pay a higher rate for its borrowings than a supposedly riskier private corporation, you know the sovereign debt crisis is here.
That's precisely the situation Greenspan describes for the U.S. credit markets today: Based on one key measure, the U.S. government was recently paying 0.13 percent MORE for 10-year loans than private borrowers!
The U.S. Treasury is paying more to borrow money than Procter & Gamble, the company behind brands like Tide detergent and Charmin toilet paper; Lowe's, the home improvement retailer; and Johnson & Johnson, the firm that makes Band-Aids, medical devices, and baby shampoo.
Greenspan Warning #3
Interest rates could skyrocket like they did in the 1980s.
Greenspan's exact words: "Long-term rate increases can emerge with unexpected suddenness. Between early October 1979 and late February 1980, for example, the yield on the 10-year note rose almost four percentage points."
Yes. Plus, in the same year, 30-year Treasury bond yields rose five percentage points; Treasury bill rates catapulted from 6 percent to 16 percent in six months; and the prime rate hit 21.5 percent.
We don't expect to see interest-rate surges of that magnitude and speed, but even if rates rise by only a small fraction of their 1980s explosion, the consequences can be catastrophic.
Greenspan Warning #4
Surging gold prices are the harbinger of future fiat money collapses.
Greenspan writes: "It is little comfort that the dollar is still the least worst of the major fiat currencies. But the inexorable rise in the price of gold indicates a large number of investors are seeking a safe haven beyond fiat currencies."
Greece is a wake-up call for the U.S. and most of the developed world.
Greenspan says that Greece should drive U.S. authorities to make "a tectonic shift in fiscal policy." Agreed.
Collapse of credit bubbles in Ireland, Spain, Greece, and Portugal could lead to those countries defaulting. ... So I expect at least one European country to go bankrupt in the next 12 months, and that will strike fear into the hearts of the central banks." Sure enough, Greece is bankrupt and others are now on the way, saved only by a bailout that could, in turn bankrupt Europe.
Sovereign debt defaults are the next shoe to drop. ... Greece is rapidly sliding down the slope toward default. ... Spain is in trouble because it experienced its own gigantic housing bubble, one that has long-since popped. ... Then there's the U.K. Its budget deficit is running at 12 percent of GDP, the highest in the Group of 20 community of nations. ... And what about the US? The fiscal 2009 budget deficit here soared to $1.4 trillion, the worst ever.
The next big victim could be the one country for which no bailout is possible — the United States.
Greenspan Warning #2
The contagion is ALREADY reaching the United States.
How do you know if the sovereign debt crisis has hit the United States, or not? To the lay observer, it's often murky. But to an interest-rate analyst, the clues are straightforward: When the federal government has to pay a higher rate for its borrowings than a supposedly riskier private corporation, you know the sovereign debt crisis is here.
That's precisely the situation Greenspan describes for the U.S. credit markets today: Based on one key measure, the U.S. government was recently paying 0.13 percent MORE for 10-year loans than private borrowers!
The U.S. Treasury is paying more to borrow money than Procter & Gamble, the company behind brands like Tide detergent and Charmin toilet paper; Lowe's, the home improvement retailer; and Johnson & Johnson, the firm that makes Band-Aids, medical devices, and baby shampoo.
Greenspan Warning #3
Interest rates could skyrocket like they did in the 1980s.
Greenspan's exact words: "Long-term rate increases can emerge with unexpected suddenness. Between early October 1979 and late February 1980, for example, the yield on the 10-year note rose almost four percentage points."
Yes. Plus, in the same year, 30-year Treasury bond yields rose five percentage points; Treasury bill rates catapulted from 6 percent to 16 percent in six months; and the prime rate hit 21.5 percent.
We don't expect to see interest-rate surges of that magnitude and speed, but even if rates rise by only a small fraction of their 1980s explosion, the consequences can be catastrophic.
Greenspan Warning #4
Surging gold prices are the harbinger of future fiat money collapses.
Greenspan writes: "It is little comfort that the dollar is still the least worst of the major fiat currencies. But the inexorable rise in the price of gold indicates a large number of investors are seeking a safe haven beyond fiat currencies."
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