Skip to main content

Adamant government is a surprise.


I am little surprised at the insistence of government and its senior ministers' adamant stance at such a breathtaking reform measure as FDI in Retail and capping of LPG cylinder for households. Something is amiss. These savy people don't do anything random and my guess, this too is NOT random.

Here I am throwing up another theory in the air. Here goes:

It is widely known it takes about a quarter for any policy to make an impression. And it is also widely known the three months prior to elections decide the votes, irrespective of what happened previous years. So, basically, politicians are trying to figure out the best way to give you 'good times' before the elections hit. If you dont believe me ask Ben Bernanke, he just wrote a $1.5trillion check to help Obama campaign. How can you ensure that people are happy 6-8 months down the line? Simple, kick all the bad news in one shot.

It should take atleast about 3 months for the inflation etc to figure in the consumer spending. With the worst of the "needed" reforms. With the investments too kicking in by March next year, you should have a great feel-good atmoshphere heading into elections.

Also, these hypothesis would be insync with the rumors of possible early election in 2013.


Conclusion: Add an adamant government and factor in some early elections, it becomes clear why this government wants no roll back.

[Although, it is little hard to believe why Congress would want to have a early elections]

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Cognitive rules of business presentations

In his recent book, Clear and to the Point, Kosslyn explained that the four rules of PowerPoint are: The Goldilocks Rule, The Rudolph Rule, The Rule of Four, and the Birds of a Feather Rule. Here's how they work. The Goldilocks Rule refers to presenting the "just right" amount of data. Never include more information than your audience needs in a visual image. As an example, Kosslyn showed two graphs of real estate prices over time. One included ten different numbers, one for each year. The other included two numbers: a peak price, and the current price. For the purposes of a presentation about today's prices relative to peak price, those numbers were the only ones necessary. The Rudolph Rule refers to simple ways you can make information stand out and guide your audience to important details -- the way Rudolph the reindeer's red nose stood out from the other reindeers' and led them. If you're presenting a piece of relevant data in a list, why not mak...
Post a Comment
Read more

Monetary inflation, Spiritual devaluation

Its been sometime I have been trying to make some special people understand the evils of inflation. Inflation is an abstract subject most of us dont know about, let alone understand the technicalities amidst jargons. I have in my previous post have briefly touched the social part of inflation but never in a concentrated way. I understand what my friends mean when they say "tell me in layman’s language." It is not a heartening sign, that they avoid technicalities. But it could well be that knowing where they stand, their role and understanding the social changes in the light of inflation may motivate them to understand the term "inflation." This is just to highlight the brief points. First and the foremost, is there any link between inflation numbers and society. Yes. The relation is same as the relation between society and money. What is money? Money is an easy means of exchange. If I am selling my horses to a pig-farmer and I am not interested in taking pigs in ret...
2 comments
Read more

Unprecedented External Demand Shock Underway

India’s export growth averaged 24.8% over the last three years, driven by strong global growth. However, over the last three months, export growth has decelerated sharply. While until recently the strong demand from emerging markets including Latin America, Emerging Europe, the Middle East and Africa ensured that export growth remained healthy, over the last three months disruptions in the macro environment of these economies have been evident. Apart from weakening demand, exports have also been affected by the lack of availability of foreign trade credit and inventory liquidation. India’s exports declined by 12.1%Y in October 2008 compared with 10.4% in September and 26.9% in August. While we expect some improvement in the second half of 2009, exports are likely to be unusually weak over the next six months. We now expect exports to decline by 5.3%Y in 2009 compared with 12.7% in 2008 (estimated) and 23.1% in 2007 Excerpt source
Post a Comment
Read more