Skip to main content

Stranger Coincidences

Some people have argued this sudden reform-virtuousness is a red carpet welcome to Obama and his crew. Is there any truth in that? It would not be possible to full understand the back-room negotiations and give-takes but some co-incidences are biting.


It’s was just a strange coincidence that on the days heading to French elections early this year India offered Dassault Aviation a $10Billion fighter aircraft order. It was a stunning choice as Dassualt was not even considered a strong contender as it had not sold a substantial order till date. For all the baruhaha, Dassault’s Raffale is an unproven machine in combat and not a single machine had been sold outside of France. There was nothing going for it.

Dassault’s Raffale, an unproven combat machine, with not a single aircraft outside of France and an under-performer. The competitors cried foul alleging irregularities, as the competitive aircraft and options were far more worthy than Dassault. It seemed something else was in the mix. Looks like it was. The order coming at the time when then President Sakozy was struggling to project a growth image in French presidential elections, promptly thanked New Delhi for its support. The Dassault order had become India’s gift to Sarkozy for his Presidential campaign. 

India has again announced a very controversial, out-of-the-blue legislation. A legislation that most US retailing companies were keenly watching and hoping for. So, has Manmohan Singh and his government, offered India's retail industry on a platter to help Obama win his election bid? Was this a move to counter the outsourcing theme and put a carrot in front of US businesses to see the brighter side of US ‘s competitiveness? Or was it part of maneuver of US’s companies to produce in China and dump in India?

[It is frequently observed that governments do take measures so that influential countries have elected Head of States who are most sympathetic to their cause. The support is almost always given to the incumbent politicians / party, irrespective of their chances of winning. For example, France's support is crucial for India's carnal fixation of UN Sec seat.

An apt example in the current scenario is the "extreme" measures taken by ECB and Bank of Japan, to keep the risk sentiment high heading into Obama's elections. Greece and other bankrupt nations will be bailed out a zillion times if needed between now and the date of election. After the elections, you can be sure hot potatoes will dropped faster than a blink of an eye. Probably, Manmohan did his best to keep the sentiments high for the Emerging markets - at least enough to ensure it doesn't tank before the November elections.]

Continuing on the same thought: If this government still is in existence post November, and the FDI-Retail issue is still a burning hot potato, you can be certain lots of these provisions would be "rolled back" or put on a back burner. But, NOT until after the said elections.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Cognitive rules of business presentations

In his recent book, Clear and to the Point, Kosslyn explained that the four rules of PowerPoint are: The Goldilocks Rule, The Rudolph Rule, The Rule of Four, and the Birds of a Feather Rule. Here's how they work. The Goldilocks Rule refers to presenting the "just right" amount of data. Never include more information than your audience needs in a visual image. As an example, Kosslyn showed two graphs of real estate prices over time. One included ten different numbers, one for each year. The other included two numbers: a peak price, and the current price. For the purposes of a presentation about today's prices relative to peak price, those numbers were the only ones necessary. The Rudolph Rule refers to simple ways you can make information stand out and guide your audience to important details -- the way Rudolph the reindeer's red nose stood out from the other reindeers' and led them. If you're presenting a piece of relevant data in a list, why not mak...
Post a Comment
Read more

Monetary inflation, Spiritual devaluation

Its been sometime I have been trying to make some special people understand the evils of inflation. Inflation is an abstract subject most of us dont know about, let alone understand the technicalities amidst jargons. I have in my previous post have briefly touched the social part of inflation but never in a concentrated way. I understand what my friends mean when they say "tell me in layman’s language." It is not a heartening sign, that they avoid technicalities. But it could well be that knowing where they stand, their role and understanding the social changes in the light of inflation may motivate them to understand the term "inflation." This is just to highlight the brief points. First and the foremost, is there any link between inflation numbers and society. Yes. The relation is same as the relation between society and money. What is money? Money is an easy means of exchange. If I am selling my horses to a pig-farmer and I am not interested in taking pigs in ret...
2 comments
Read more

Unprecedented External Demand Shock Underway

India’s export growth averaged 24.8% over the last three years, driven by strong global growth. However, over the last three months, export growth has decelerated sharply. While until recently the strong demand from emerging markets including Latin America, Emerging Europe, the Middle East and Africa ensured that export growth remained healthy, over the last three months disruptions in the macro environment of these economies have been evident. Apart from weakening demand, exports have also been affected by the lack of availability of foreign trade credit and inventory liquidation. India’s exports declined by 12.1%Y in October 2008 compared with 10.4% in September and 26.9% in August. While we expect some improvement in the second half of 2009, exports are likely to be unusually weak over the next six months. We now expect exports to decline by 5.3%Y in 2009 compared with 12.7% in 2008 (estimated) and 23.1% in 2007 Excerpt source
Post a Comment
Read more