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Stranger Coincidences

Some people have argued this sudden reform-virtuousness is a red carpet welcome to Obama and his crew. Is there any truth in that? It would not be possible to full understand the back-room negotiations and give-takes but some co-incidences are biting.


It’s was just a strange coincidence that on the days heading to French elections early this year India offered Dassault Aviation a $10Billion fighter aircraft order. It was a stunning choice as Dassualt was not even considered a strong contender as it had not sold a substantial order till date. For all the baruhaha, Dassault’s Raffale is an unproven machine in combat and not a single machine had been sold outside of France. There was nothing going for it.

Dassault’s Raffale, an unproven combat machine, with not a single aircraft outside of France and an under-performer. The competitors cried foul alleging irregularities, as the competitive aircraft and options were far more worthy than Dassault. It seemed something else was in the mix. Looks like it was. The order coming at the time when then President Sakozy was struggling to project a growth image in French presidential elections, promptly thanked New Delhi for its support. The Dassault order had become India’s gift to Sarkozy for his Presidential campaign. 

India has again announced a very controversial, out-of-the-blue legislation. A legislation that most US retailing companies were keenly watching and hoping for. So, has Manmohan Singh and his government, offered India's retail industry on a platter to help Obama win his election bid? Was this a move to counter the outsourcing theme and put a carrot in front of US businesses to see the brighter side of US ‘s competitiveness? Or was it part of maneuver of US’s companies to produce in China and dump in India?

[It is frequently observed that governments do take measures so that influential countries have elected Head of States who are most sympathetic to their cause. The support is almost always given to the incumbent politicians / party, irrespective of their chances of winning. For example, France's support is crucial for India's carnal fixation of UN Sec seat.

An apt example in the current scenario is the "extreme" measures taken by ECB and Bank of Japan, to keep the risk sentiment high heading into Obama's elections. Greece and other bankrupt nations will be bailed out a zillion times if needed between now and the date of election. After the elections, you can be sure hot potatoes will dropped faster than a blink of an eye. Probably, Manmohan did his best to keep the sentiments high for the Emerging markets - at least enough to ensure it doesn't tank before the November elections.]

Continuing on the same thought: If this government still is in existence post November, and the FDI-Retail issue is still a burning hot potato, you can be certain lots of these provisions would be "rolled back" or put on a back burner. But, NOT until after the said elections.

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