In December when Aam Admi Party swept the Delhi's polls, it was a tectonic shift. A new party, made of political rookies sweeping deeply entrenched parties was a credible job.
What was the reason a new party was so successful? This subject has been beaten to death post that win, however there is one aspect which I have not seen people have tackled much. That's possible because most of the news channels seem to concentrate on the present and few are rarely concerned about history.
Well, for the history. AAP has its origins in the Anna Hazare's movement against corruption. The timing of the corruption and its subsequent ability to grip the masses' imagination was spectacular. The key is - this was in 2011-12.
In effect, Aam Admi Party has been campaigning against the establishment - Congress and BJP, since at least 3 years. With the movement led by Anna Hazare and supported by almost all sections of society across the country, and also supported by celebrities, led to successful tabling of the Lokpal Bill which Anna was keen on. The formation of Aam Admi Party was in effect a continuation of these activities by civil society against the established parties and hence has much more credibility on the ground. Turning these 3 years of movement, and tapping on to the seam of frustrations it was easy for Aam Admi Party to win these elections in the way it did.
The vote share percentage, even after all these direct contact and mass meetings under Anna Hazare and subsequent campaigning, it could only garner a third of votes, which is highly credible for a small new party, but not good enough to be taken seriously.
The biggest mistake of AAP is to extrapolate its support and success in Delhi, on to the national stage without taking into account the groundswell support created by Anna's movement and the long time of stealth campaign, is going to be disastrous for its ex-Delhi election battles.
This is the key factor that will greatly affect AAP and its credibility. The scramble with which AAP is trying to go national, despite ditching a great opportunity to establish a track record in Delhi was a big mistake. The proof of this will come in the Delhi's assembly elections. Any slipping of AAP's vote share and seats will be direct proof of how badly they stumbled in their strategy.
For a change, they should have listened to veteran politicians who preached a restraint in policy making, instead of dashing to finish line. Had they had patience to look at 2019 and playing for it, like Rahul Gandhi and whole echelons of Congress leaders, AAP would have had substantial chance to make a difference. With the current strategy they are going to fatigue double-quick and will loose all the activist credibility with the losses they are bound to face across India. Delhi however will be the final test, and if it comes to it, the final straw.
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