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Election Ranturms - 2 [Mamta's, Jaya's, Nitish's ambitions and Coalitions' new reality]

Mamta Banerjee is becoming a bit of puzzle to me. Or if I am reading it right, she has some goals but is totally under-resourced to be able to achieve it. TMC being a regional party obviously needs allies, however that is not the biggest weakness. Actually, you can see this weakness across the board, be it Jayalalitha, Nitish or Naveen. I guess the problem is simple.

India from now is going to be dictated by States and not by the Center. That rubicon we crossed sometime in past few years when regional parties became the key 'king makers.' But playing a national game in a diversified country like India, with hundreds of cultural, traditional, educational, situational, aspirational, geographical and resource differences, is an extremely difficult task. The problems with regional leaders like Mamta or Jayalalitha or Nitish is their reach is grossly limited by their brand, as well as the content/ ideology and reach.

A good example of how hard it is, Mayawati has been trying for years to tap into backward-caste vote bases across India but has consistently gotten zero for its efforts and expenses. Recent debacle of Mamta's Delhi rally is just a minor obstacle in its course.

For these regional parties to metamorphose into larger "zonal" parties or national parties is going to be a huge task. Its going to be next big leap that we are going to see in the Indian politics over next few years. This nationalization is the trend, and this is going to move albeit at a glacial space.

Look out for party leaders learning new languages, and giving rally speeches far outside their states. How many times for instance has Mamta addressed rallies in Mumbai, or Jayalalitha in Delhi or Nitish in Chennai? None, I am pretty sure. From now on however, such addresses would be common. 

Also look out for regional leaders being more involved in activities, projects, issues etc outside their states. We may find this very odd like Mamta commenting on Maharashtra's laws or Nitish suggesting solutions on Kashmir's problems. But this kind of politics, or nationalization, is going to be fact.

Also, a single party going for it does not make sense, at the same time becoming a big party will make them no different than BJP or Congress or CPI. The best way possible for them would be to make a "front," stitch up allies.** In this sense, Mamta's "Federal Front" idea has best chance of success over long term. They rightly, do not have any immediate influence over national politics but such a front can be a force to reckon in next decade.***

To conclude, theories of Mamta or Jaya upsetting Modi to become PM is a laughing matter, however on long run these increasing assertion of these regional parties in national politics is a trend that will go stronger over next few elections. Though Federal Front or such schemes may not have any credibility at the moment, the coalitions like NDA's next biggest challenge will be regional party led coalitions, and not National party (like Congress) led coalition.****


*To give the credit where it is due, this thought process was triggered by a Jayalalitha's supporter justifying her desire to be PM by saying that Jayalalitha know 10 languages and can campaign anywhere in India.

** I am sure of one thing however, any "front" with communists in it will be a non-starter. 

*** It is here that Mamta's national manifesto, strongly advocating Federalism is no accident. Only when states are given appropriate powers, can regional parties can grow influence in their regions. At the same time keeping Center off their hair is best way to keep the National parties in check.

**** Come to think of it, it may now be wrong to call it a BJP-led coalition. Putting one horse in front of other will only lead to possibilities of new fronts.

***********


To continue with the above strain of thought, its is clear that a party cannot be small or too big to be influential in future. A party would be of optimum size - neither a whale nor a sardine. Somewhere in between. 

If it is a whale, like BJP or Congress, it can only be in coalitions where it can ensure its will and ideologies. If it is a sardine, then no body cares about it. The Optimum size of these Federal Front parties is going to be set, in such a way that their numbers are essential for the coalition but they can easily shift or withdraw from coalitions A to coalition B if they so desire, without upsetting the dynamics of the coalition B, while putting sufficient pressure on coalition A to retain them.

Well, as I see it, is going to be interesting times ahead!

***

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