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Showing posts from April, 2007

Verily V4V verse is very witty

V for Vendetta (V4V) must simply be one of the best films I have seen in recent times. Here is a classic introductory speech of V. The speech is not part of the original book but was adapted for the movie. Ideologically rich and interpreted in more ways than one like all other Wachowski brothers' productions. ==== Evey: Who are you? V. : Who? Who is but the form following the function of what and what I am is a man in a mask. Evey: Well I can see that. V. : Of course you can, I'm not questioning your powers of observation, I'm merely remarking upon the paradox of asking a masked man who he is. Evey: Oh, right. V. : But on this most auspicious of nights, permit me then, in lieu of the more commonplace soubriquet, to suggest the character of this dramatis persona. Voilà! In view, a humble vaudevillian veteran, cast vicariously as both victim and villain by the vicissitudes of Fate. This visage, no mere veneer of vanity, is a vestige of the vox populi, now vacant, vanished. Ho...

Forbes BOW - Market Data

Following are the Forbes's Bow for Market data. Among these I have used many and I have heard great things about others. I am not sure, what was the criteria that they used in rating, but not having the likes of Bloomberg in the list is open matter. My guess, is they wanted to build a portfolio of the data sites, a list that will be useful for all the info requirements. Or other sites have been placed under a different category. Dismal Scientist Forbes Favorite Bankrate.com Forbes Best of The Web pick EconomicIndicators.gov Forbes Best of The Web pick MSCI Forbes Best of The Web pick OandA.com Forbes Best of The Web pick Prophet.net Forbes Best of The Web pick BigCharts.com BusinessWeek Online ClearStation DTN.IQ Decision Point E-Signal EconData.net Nasdaq PCQuote.com Quote.com Reuters Investor SmartMoney.com Stocksmart

Men in Green!

Sorry couldn't help posting! Tooooo tempting :)) :) Falkor Source: Got it from Kitco.

Dow & Gold, boom & crash, Prechter & Neely

In the technical analysis world there are two types of people one elliotists and other non-elliotists. Elliotist clan is again divided into the castes of Prechter and Glen Neely. And every time, the debate rages barbs are thrown at Prechterists highlighting the long awaited crash has not taken place at all. I remain quiet, a quiet word is of no use in a heated debate. The Peter Schiff article contained something that is pretty much what I have believed - Prechter is correct. First Peter Schiff " consider that the record high for the Dow in 1929 of approximately 380 also equated to 19 ounces of gold. So despite all of the hoopla and a thirty-fold increase in stock prices, the Dow has actually gained no real value during the past eighty years. The entire rise from 360 to 13,000 has been an illusion made possible by the magic of inflation ." Allow me a little explanation. When you start a game of say football you start off with specific rules and the set goal posts. Simple....

Amoeba beats the elephant!

Google - the richest brand The latest survey values Google at $66billion, the highest brand value. The fellow country men GE and Coke follow at $61bn and $44bn. A 10 year old company beating the 100 year olds. The entry says Google was selected for "its ability to converge technologies by mixing and matching services over the Internet and making them available on a wide range of electronic devices" Today Balmer of MS also was quoted as saying that his biggest regret was getting into the search marketing very late. MS actually got on to the internet band wagon very late by that parameter they are lucky to have a substantial internet presence. Falkor

James Bond and Casino Royale

Movie reviews are not my cup of tea, so please bear with me. Recently I caught up with the latest James Bond, The Casino Royale. I was left wondering as to what the movie is all about. It goes in loops and loops of senseless action and finally it ends and you are no wiser. But it was after sometime my disgust for the movie grew. 1. In the movie Bond plays a high stake poker game and win big. Real big. Its gambling. And gambling is stupid. Period. 2. Bond has no weapon on his side for the fight. He only has a "feeling" that he can call the bluff of the villain. And even in his own movie, Bond fails to call the bluff. 2a. His techniques are entirely subjective. Even a poker player will reject the odds. 2b. Bond does not play the odds, but the emotion of having to beat a player 3. Bonds puts money back in again when he has been wiped clean. In trading parlance, he puts in good money behind a bad trade. 3a. He justifies his putting additional money. Who is not able to justify a l...

Will the Fed cut rates?

Can the Fed be right all the time? Possibly yes, more times than they would otherwise deserve. That could be that they are demi-gods of the systems they control. Sparks fly, when questions are raised against them. Today, Bloomberg carries story of Goldman, Meryll and UBS stating the Fed is wrong in the assumption of the slowdown. They say, it could be that Fed has put brakes to the floor a little too much than necessary. they advocate a cut in rates, but it seems markets are not betting on the cuts yet. The interesting aspect of this episode is the rise of dissension. Time will tell how easily Fed is able to get its point of view on the market screen. Falkor

Hawkings - Goes to Space

Quite an inspiring day. Right after the Jordan's quote I see this. I am a great fan and admirer of Hawkings. He finally steps into a world he has conquered from his wheelchair. Dont want to say much about him, my words would be too unworthy. :) Falkor

An inspiring quote

Been a great fan of Michael Jordan and a great inspiration. His "For the love of the game" is almost a motto for me. This quote from Aloysious's site is simply too superb to be missed! Inspiring quotes are n numbers but nobody gives the facts, the numbers and coming from the person who made the greatest sporting comeback in the history as we know it- it feels something special. It feels possible.

CHF - Can it pull off?

The currencies that are gaining strength against USD are mainly carry trade currencies. Swissy has gained strength and probably make new highs very soon and Yen is holdings its ground. Technically Swissy seems to be very close to breaking the supporting wedgish trendline, this along with Yen near King cobra like poise for strike is perhaps an indication of coming near precipitous fall in USD in couple of days. It may be mentioned here, that the analysis are on the hourly scales. The oversoldness or the positive divergences is unlikely to have signifcant impact, if the sentiment for the already deteriorating USD deteriorates further.

Yen - Count on yen for a trade setup

If you want to see an interesting technical pattern, look no further than Yen. Yen is a beauty. The patterns that it creates are truly amaxing and so strictly technical. This is perhaps because Japanese are more technical analysts. Technical analysis has always played a role in their trading. The present situation of the USDYEN is what I would like to call as Elegant trade. The trade makes sense for the sheer elegance of the pattern. For the simplicity of the trade setup. USD has not been able to move above 119 for the fourth time. A trade setup begins to dawn. The USD is now supported by a trendline which supports it at approximately 118.40. The break below this TL would be a wake up call. But I do not see it as a sole reason to go short*. It is more likely the prices stay range bound (around 118.20) inspite of the break and consequently may be in for some extended range duration. Lets contradict. The Aud has shown some weakness and it is more likely to persist for sometime. This ma...

Chart Freak posts

My original Chart Freak blog has got into some serious DNS errors. It may be a while Google will get it to work. I meantime, I will be posting the charts at this blog. The links of the old blog still work with specific urls. So here they are: USD - How long can it hold? Yen - Likely to gain GBP - 21 year high against USD EurUSD like to head down Cheers, Falkor

USD - How can it hold?

USD seems have bottomed out for short term. It gained some ground against Euro and Yen. Perhaps more precisely, the fall has taken a breather from the all time lows. One of the most spectacular aspect of this fall is the near universal decline against all currencies. Such, a weakness though expected and predicted, shows sheer amount of dynamism that will effect the markets once the "ranges"/"notions" of decades give way to new world of equilibrium. This fall, and more importantly the lack of strength of dollar to recover bodes evil for dollar bulls, for at least good part of the year to come. The present pullback, if it can even be termed that should be viewed as temporary. Given the weakness exhibited USD may breach the lows repeatedly, show some massive positive divergences, and yet be unable to stand up against the force of the downdraft. For the short-term, the USD CHF is in a dicey situation, and well worth a watch. The patterns and the divergences are very pos...

YEN - likely to gain

If the GBP and Aussie were strong against dollar like most of the other currencies then Yen was a spectacular exception. USD has actually gained on Yen when it has fallen against most of the currencies. en This does not bear good news for Yen, which is loosing ground against a weakening Dollar. There has been hue and cry about how low the Yen is. The issue is likely to gather more steam and most probably the result will be the steady and gradual strengthening of Yen. The strengthening of the Yen is also inevitable because of the expected hike in the interest rates. Technically, the Yen looks set for a rally. The expanding form that Yen gained from in Feb and its consequent rally in March has been retraced by 61.8%. Dollar was not able to break above the 120 barrier and has fallen again. The trend at present is clearly down for dollar. There would be shorting opportunities in the dollar on a bounce up to 120. Even on the breach of 120, the dollar is not like to show strength. For the...

GBP - 21 year high against USD

GBP has been hogging the limelight for past few days. The 21 year peak is well.. a first time in 21 years. To put it in perspective, the last time GBPUSD was at 2.0000 was in 1986. That is ages far away. A lot of traders are questioning if we are entering a new phase where the markets will define new ranges for trading. If the answer is yes, then it is pretty much tectonic shifts in the strategies and trading assumptions. But either way, yes or no, the markets have been changed. USD has been consitently weak the entire month. In my last post, when EURUSD was at 33, I had mentioned it is likely to come to 32-31.5. This was my expectation, not for the short, by expecting USD would show some signs of strength on the back of good divergences. But the ease with which the USD has been crashing through the floor is ample proof of how fundamentally the situation has changed in US. Looking at the GBP chart on daily scale is the superb trending that is just getting strong. It has clearly broken...

Blue Crush - Joy of riding waves

A philosopher trades the market.

I do not have much love for Philosophy, especially of the metaphysical kind. I have found Philosophy to be stating the simplest facts in so many ways that the output is a complex jumble of metaphysical imagination. The end result is spreading the nuggets so thin, the core is lost in the multitude. And as a result the fact ends up becoming an imagination. Thankfully, market is not that deep. Not as deep as other questions that we try to answer in philosophy. Playing market is a simple game of discipline and hard work. But so obtuse are its interpretations, that tomes have been filled up already and more libraries need to be built in future too. Market has been pushed to the realms of deep-field. I have been in market for so long that I don't know if there is anything well that I can do better in my life. But comparatively, my 3 month only puppy dog would be a better trader. If I follow him, or better let him manage my account, I will be rich beyond dreams. Before you take offense an...

Dont be dumb, Google it!

I once tried to automate a function in MS excel. A particularly messy data extraction and manipulation problem. The first thing I did was search it in the help file, which was of no use. Then I asked people around me if they could do it or if there were any other tools that could be used. Nothing much again. Then started searching the web for any answers - nothing yet again. Then I searched the Excel related web-sites for any posts or queries to that effect. I then zeroed in on one guy, who seemed to be particularly helpful to people with questions. I wrote him a mail, explaining him my problem and waited for his reply. A day later i checked his blog again. There was a new post, a rather small one. It said, something to this effect - Don't ask dumb questions - Google it . This was the first time I heard Google being used as a verb. Google till you find it. Wasn't internet created for researchers to share their knowledge. I searched again, with the only difference that I lingere...

Unpredictability of Technology

Mistakes are portals of discovery - James Joyce Every innovation is like a tree that grows from the mistakes of those who have gone by earlier. It is very important to realise the value of these failures. They are truly the teachers. The failures could be for numerous reasons. Technological innovation are creatures of dynamical forces and failures are part of the life. Looking positively, failures are not explicit failures but lack of success in these initiatives. Newton said he saw farther than others by standing on the shoulders of giants. Newton built up on the work done by many contemporaries. The failures are fantastic reference points for growth. Mankind has progressed when there have been great achievements, and none of these great achievements could have happened without understanding the failures. It is the persistence that matters in the end. The drive to build the code that works. Trying to understand the code that refuses to break. The technology sector has special affinity...

Science breakthrough - The end of blood types

Enzymes could reduce transfusion blood shortages 04 April 2007 A method of removing antigens from the surface of red blood cells using new bacterial enzymes could significantly boost blood bank supplies. Writing in the journal Nature Biotechnology , an international team of researchers explain how enzymes from two bacteria – Elizabethkingia meningosepticum and Bacterioides fragilis – can be used to develop universal blood cells, accepted by all individuals. The concept is not new; 25 years ago scientists in the US showed that a coffee bean enzyme can strip the B antigen from red blood cells. But its weak potency limited its practical applications. After screening 2,500 fungi and bacteria, a team led by Professor Henrik Clausen from the University of Copenhagen in Denmark has now found two bacterial enzymes belonging to glycosidase gene families that are capable of efficient removal of A and B antigens at neutral pH with low consumption. This means blood from group A, B or AB can be ess...