Over the years as Congress floundered, Jayalalitha has really impressed me. She has turned around a nearly decimated Tamil Nadu into a fast growing state. I am sure and I am certainly not off the mark if I say, had not DMK and Karunanidhi not come to power in the interim years, Jayalalitha would have made Tamil Nadu a state to talk about and it wouldn't have been Gujarat.
I am no fan boy of Jayalalitha, but surely impressed by what she has done for the state. And seeing how impressive her credentials have since become it hard to hide admiration.
The greatest differentiating factor for Jayalalitha is that she has a vision. And she is suave enough to articulate and execute it. Vision is something that is in acute short supply in this country. Except for Modi and Jayalalitha, I don't see any body with a good long range vision for the country. You will see lots of theme-based or issue-based propaganda but that will not be useful. Unless a vision is envisioned, developed and executed for whole range of issues and in appropriate priority, it is very hard to foresee any development happening in this country.
Over past weeks Jayalalitha has been batting masterstrokes from her rather diminutive position on Indian politics. It is highly unlikely she will be PM, as she aspires to but the very fact that she aspires to the position based on the work she has done over past two decades is incredible indeed.
The release of vision statements, and industrial policies; the release of manifesto for Tamil Nadu AND India; elucidating her vision for India as a nation; her clear proclamation of her intent to be PM and her finalizing and releasing the candidates list for the elections. Her taking the mattress off the Karunanidhi's feet by proclaiming the release of Rajiv Gandhi's killers was a masterstroke Karnuanidhi will not survive.
If you look at the above moves one this about the strategy becomes very clear - and it is the strategy that I love to study - and in this case praise. These moves effectively occupies the strategic positions before any of the rivals could even make their move. In other words, Jayalalitha went on offensive and took the best positions, and make her intent clear to her rivals and allies, now everybody else will have suit their strategies to suit Jayalalitha's strategies and not the other way round. Let me illustrate here a bit.
1. Proclamation:
By clearly stating she was in for the PM position, she has shot the highest goal there is in this elections. Most likely she will not get it. And I am pretty sure Jayalalitha knows it too. Unless, lots of Ifs and Buts happen in very favorable manner, Jayalalitha is not likely to be the PM. However, it definitely gives her the best card to play in the next government formation and the best ministerial posts at the least! This will greatly help her in post-election negotiations.
I think, by shooting for the PM position, she has assured herself of the PM position if it becomes available or at the least some plum ministerial positions for her party, while she governs Tamil Nadu, where she will remain unchallenged.
2. Vision:
By stating the Vision for India, while also stating the vision for Tamil Nadu she has captured the precious space which is presently occupied by none other than Modi. Currently, only two leaders have stated their vision - in words and in practice - they are Modi and Jayalalitha.
The importance of Vision is something that Congress has never understood, nor parties like AAP have any mind space for. Only time Congress did well was when Rajiv Gandhi was at helm and his vision "Mera Sapna" drove the policies. Before him, Indira Gandhi's vision of strong India drove the policies, though it was more suited to its times of Cold War.
Crappy politics and drama of parties like AAP will hold no light to these grand visions that we need now. I am sure they will fizzle out as quickly as they were formed.
3. Manifesto:
Vision is meaningless unless some specific plans are in place to achieve it. Or it will be full of hot air like AAP's promises. The fact that both Modi and Jayalalitha have propelled their states to new heights despite severe growth crunch in the country says more than that can be put to words. They are leaders and with nearly the same ideas. They are the best partners India can have at the moment.
By releasing far reaching policies and industry specific vision documents, she has fully captured the corporate sector attention. It will take sometime for them to translate it into actual support and investment on ground, but the momentum is built up.
4. Candidates:
Another unmentioned masterstroke is releasing the complete set of candidates list of elections. Basically, the message to allies is we can go alone if we have to, so please accommodate with what we give you. Therefore Jayalalitha decides who gets what and since she in going in with very high growth momentum built up from DMK's rubbles, and with DMK's corruption issues still fresh in memory, it should be smooth sailing for her, irrespective she goes alone or with others.
By occupying all the available positions, she just made sure she commands the shots.
5. Rajiv Gandhi's killers:
Most people think this is Jayalalitha's political ploy. Well, it isn't. The news for them is, this Tamil issue is the pet project for Karunanidhi, who has gone to great lengths and even 'hunger strikes' to get laws and resolutions pass against Sri Lankan government. In short, LTTE was one of the trump cards of Karunanidhi, and watchers will know that Jayalalitha is not enchanted by such sentiments.
But by doing what is unthinkable, and taking on Karunanidhi and Congress in one legal masterstroke, she has taken away the "Dravidian" trump that Karunanidhi has always relied on to come to power. For Jayalalitha, it does not matter if the release happens or not. The idea for her is not to gain but puncturing Karunanidhi in his strongest points.
Jayalalitha will be happy to let the case drift in the courts for as long as it may be, while blaming Congress and its ally DMK for the delay in release. And moreover, the Tamil issue was never Jayalalitha's election plank, it has always been the growth and industry.
6. Other issues:
A. Corruption:
Expect more heat to grow on the DMK as the election comes closer especially the 2G scam where the key aides of DMK Kannimozhi and Raja are up to their neck. Reminding people of the scenario when Jayalalitha took over the state, or better still, reminding the people of the state of affairs DMKs government had descended to, will have have huge impact.
B. Rebelion:
The internal feud of DMK is the most serious but underplayed factor that weakens them. Jayalalitha would be happy to descend them into chaos. This is probable her best chance to obliterate Congress-DMK combine. If she can sweep the polls, she will go into national politics with much stronger bargaining chips.
C. Going National:
One curious aside in last years' Karnataka elections were fielding of AIADMK candidates. They were few but they were spread across the state. I think, this was the first intention of Jayalalitha going national and trying to capture more seats and not just restricted to Tamil Nadu.
It would be an easy guess to say that she will field candidates in Karnataka and Seemandhra region, providing any deal or accommodation with allies.
Conclusion:
Its easy to see Jayalalitha is the 'leader' in the current 'Third Front' but she clearly does not belong there. Her genial relationship with Modi will come to fore before the elections and if she is able to perform strongly in elections, she can expect to be accommodated big time in the cabinet. I expect her not to make any overt moves in support of Modi, and hold the "PM" card in "third front" for as long as needed. If Third Front wins big, she will be hold PM or key position, if BJP needs her help she will be happy to help for a key position.
Though It looks very simple, its stunning how well planned out the entire exercise is for AIADMK. Contrast that to Congress or AAP, where the strategies are in doldrums. Well, in defense of Congress, its a large parties with infinite give-take relationships across states, where it will buy off or sell off whatever and wherever it feels good.
Comments
Post a Comment