Problem with analyses

The core problem with analyses is that we consistently tend to underestimate the possibilities. We are usually faced with so much of uncertain factors that it is impossible to estimate, let alone predict, the possible scenarios. Yet we, especially the market analysts, have this tendency to get ahead of ourselves and visualize the possible future scenarios.

The problem is, any one of the fluid factors could drastically change scenario. Unfortunately, the probabilities of such occurrence are very high, yet we err. 

Best way to tackle these is to have constant stream of data while cancelling out all the additional data / factors that try and affect us. By concentrating on few representative data sets we have much better chance of finding success than trying to utilize all the factors.

In short, the solution is to focus on few factors that will give us results majority of times. Trying to be right all the time will only lead us to be wrong most of the times.