Skip to main content

Posts

Showing posts from February, 2008

Barrack Obama on Linkedin

I was at first surprised to see Obama on Linkedin then on second thought it dint feel any out of place. After all Obama and Ron Paul have proven themselves to be masters to the internet medium. It is certainly a forced to be tapped. Ignore it at your own risk. http://www.linkedin.com/in/barackobama Falkor

Time managment - Pickle jar!

Time management. It is one of the most important thing we can do in our daily life. Rather it is a must do. During the times, when the average time spent with families can be in few hours per week, an additional time spent will be a great relief. I have over the years tried to use several time management techniques but honestly, have not been successful in following it up. It takes great deal of discipline to stick to the cause. The biggest hurdle is that it is so inanimate. There is no joy in tagging "Call mother" as "High priority" which could be as same as "pay electricity bills" another "high-priority." Entire life gets 'prioritized'. I have not come across anything substantial which deals with the matters of 'heart' differently from the matters of 'business.' I did come across some techniques which prioritizes the family and business, and further refines the priorities among these. Unfortunately, it gets a bit too co...

Free Technical analysis software for markets - Open Source

In continuation of the technical analysis software in the Open Source environment. I am coming across many more softwares. One of the promising one is developed by principal Open Source platform The Source Forge. The software can be downloaded from the Sourceforge website or using this link. The previous projects listed did not have the support for the product. The projects were wither half-baked or abandoned. Unlike these projects the Sourceforge project promises support on continual basis but there has not been any new versions or fixes since the 2004 version. Perhaps their claim for support is also too outdated. But for a beginner trying out technical analysis these software are perhaps a good starting point, particularly if the person is not inclined to shell out of some bucks for the purchase. Personally, I do not see a reason why a person should not go for commercial versions like Metatstock or Amibroker, especially so because lack of research can end up in losses. It is recommen...

Technical analysis - Is Elliot Wave method relevant?

Some view on Elliot waves ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Long back I decided to write a blog for one main reason – to be able to express myself without inhibition. To be able to talk to myself on range of subjects that interests me infinitely. There were many other routes of expression like forums and articles. But in those forms my expressions are generally restricted to the social norms, climate and objective set by the forum. I may not be able to contradict/ express something that many may find sacrilegious. In this post I deal with one of the methods of trading that I consider is irrelevant in its original structure. Hence, this is just a note from myself to myself on something that I consider irrelevant – Elliot Waves. An Elliot wave theory is a method of technical analysis that evokes strong emotions from the followers and detractors. To clarify I am neither. Please note I do not say method is irrelevant but ju...

Cognitive rules of business presentations

In his recent book, Clear and to the Point, Kosslyn explained that the four rules of PowerPoint are: The Goldilocks Rule, The Rudolph Rule, The Rule of Four, and the Birds of a Feather Rule. Here's how they work. The Goldilocks Rule refers to presenting the "just right" amount of data. Never include more information than your audience needs in a visual image. As an example, Kosslyn showed two graphs of real estate prices over time. One included ten different numbers, one for each year. The other included two numbers: a peak price, and the current price. For the purposes of a presentation about today's prices relative to peak price, those numbers were the only ones necessary. The Rudolph Rule refers to simple ways you can make information stand out and guide your audience to important details -- the way Rudolph the reindeer's red nose stood out from the other reindeers' and led them. If you're presenting a piece of relevant data in a list, why not mak...

A breif on Recession (intro)

The drop in the growth rates of the economy, usually due to fall in productivity, is general view of recession. In other words, the growth is 'receding.' Recession is much more benign than depression. Depression means actual shrinking of the economy. Some of the triggers for recession are fall in the money supply, rise in interest rates, fall in the consumption demand, supply-side problems/glut, drop in business confidence, falling/negative investment-growth in economy, rising inflation, falling corporate growth to name few triggers/symptoms. Like everything in the system, every factor in turns affects others. It is very difficult for all/many of these factors to align and give a perfect recession ‘onset’ signal. Therefore the representation of recession is the decline in growth rates for two consecutive quarters. The 'onset' of recession does not imply 'dark-days ahead', because underlying engines of growth could be still functioning fine. With a little tweak h...

Secret of success

Today I read a beautiful little book by Og Mandino "Mission Success". As all other Og's books this one is worth reading again and again. It is sweet, short and simple. Just wanted to share of the quotes that in my opinion is key to learning trading and technical analysis. Or perhaps simply put, anything that is esoteric. I know, lot of cudgels will come out for me if I mention technical analysis and esoteric in the same sentence. But in my opinion there is substantial levitude of esoterism in technical analysis. It is a moot point to mention that here I am using the word 'esotoric' to mean 'confidence of subjectiveness that comes with experience'. Perhaps, this would satisfy some friends. Here is the quote: "I've learned to look upon life as a mission that each one of us must fly on our own. What they teach us in school helps us only to get off the ground, but we will certainly never arrive at the targets of our dreams unless we learn from those ...

Pursuit of happyness

Quite frankly the question we should ask is why are we in pursuit of happiness. Always in pursuit. As if the pursuit of a shadow or mirage. Perhaps the answer lies in living the moment. The 'now'. The 'present'. Quite philosophical this, but I dint realize the importance of few things that have happened this week until a friend Paul brought this song titled 'The List' to my notice. We never seem to get hold of happiness/fulfillment, no matter what we do, no matter what we achieve. No matter how much we gain or progress. Those simple things that we want to enjoy some how keeps moving away from us. It is such a easiest thing to fulfill but hardest thing to do. We are so engrossed in our daily grind. Pursuing whatever that we are pursuing, while all the while the goal of the pursuit is always with(in) us. The song is by Toby Keith, one of the best western singer. The song is entitled The List. Under an old brass paperweight is my list of things to do today Go to th...

Liquidity and Systematic risk

Peter Bernstein in his article published in Journal of Portfolio Management speculates on the relationship between the liquidity and systematic risk. The article seems to be based on the assumption that the liquidity is very closely correlated to systematic risk. This can be proved empirically and something traders experience day-to-day. Briefly, liquidity is the function of various macro-economic factors and hence would lead to a systemic impact. Mr. Bernstien says, "How much research do you need to buy S&P500 index fund or futures as compared with research you would have to do if you wanted to pick and choose just a few among those five hundred stocks? No wonder the five hundred together are more liquid than any one or even ten of them - and in this case diversification comes along for the ride. No research!" "More liquid the asset, more the liquidity means WYSIWYG. The value of all assets with so much similarity move up and down together because they are interc...

Seasonality and January reversal

Ilya Figelman writes in the latest issue of Journal of Portfolio Management the research findings on seasonality and market reversals. Ilya has studied the monthly returns behaviour of all the stocks in S&P500 between the periods of January 1970 to December 2004. The methodology used is by decomposing the profitability, momentum and reversal effects by calendar months. Seasonality Regarding the seasonality of the returns Ilya states “I also show the short-term reversals, intermediate-term, long-term reversals, yearly periodicity, are enhanced in the months the firm announces earnings.” The possibility of reversals at the time of announcements of the earnings is not much of a surprise. But Ilya further states “Quarterly periodicity is not affected by earnings announcements, which is somewhat surprising.” This is a surprise, given the obsession with quarterly results. It gets a bit more interesting. “The strongest momentum months are June, September and December. ...

For transparent carbon trading - The Hindu (Ed)

Global carbon trading has gained momentum. The Worldwatch Institute, drawing from various studies, places the total value of the trade in 2007 at $59.2 billion, an 80 per cent increase over 2006. As the 2012 deadline for reducing emission levels approaches, the volume of carbon trading will be enormous. Asian countries are the biggest sellers and western countries the biggest buyers. A World Bank report on the 2007 carbon market shows that China has a market share of 61 pe r cent and India 12 per cent. The Government of India, as a part of its commitment to the Kyoto Protocol, set up in 2003 a National Clean Development Mechanism Authority, which has been reviewing proposals for carbon credits. However, the final credits are issued by the Executive Board of the Clean Development Mechanism at the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change (UNFCCC). India has garnered 35 million of the 102 million Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) issued up to January 2008. This augurs we...

Jokes :)

Joke has close resemblence to stock markets. A mathematician is flying non-stop from Edmonton to Frankfurt with AirTransat. The scheduled flying time is nine hours. Some time after taking off, the pilot announces that one engine had to be turned off due to mechanical failure: "Don't worry - we're safe. The only noticeable effect this will have for us is that our total flying time will be ten hours instead of nine." A few hours into the flight, the pilot informs the passengers that another engine had to be turned off due to mechanical failure: "But don't worry - we're still safe. Only our flying time will go up to twelve hours." Some time later, a third engine fails and has to be turned off. But the pilot reassures the passengers: "Don't worry - even with one engine, we're still perfectly safe. It just means that it will take sixteen hours total for this plane to arrive in Frankfurt." The mathematician remarks to his fellow passenge...

How-to overcome sendentary lifestyle.

Some interesting points on overcoming sedentary lifestyle. There are many other routine ones, just try googling that. 1. Some not so routine tips on avoiding the sedentary lifestyle 2. Walking while talking on phone is a good way to get expressive and burn calories too. 3. Don't use the phone to call someone a short walking distance away. Walk and visit whenever possible. Same for grocery shopping. 4. Catch a different bus that makes you walk a bit more. You can catch a bus from a different stop, a little farther from your regular stop. 5. Pacing the length of the subway platform whenever the train/bus is late. 6. Dance Source: from various places on net

Open-source (free) technical analysis softwares

Many veterans of the stock markets use the age-old method of pencil and paper. Much trades have happened since the times of Elliot and Gann. Today's trader rarely has time to spend time with his family, and charting using pencil and paper is virtually an impossible task. The computer and technology has been a great blessing for trader with its ease and efficiency of use. Every chartist needs to have at-least one software to help him out in the major analysis. Many traders have more than one analysis tools meant for different needs. Since, these tools are very flexible to suit ones requirements they are more adaptive. Free technical analysis softwares A primary requirement for a technical analysis is an analysis tool. But for a beginner who is trying to find feet on the tricky trading floor, such a move is very difficult. I have been asked many times, if any packages were available for free. Apart from few trial versions and expensive subscriptions, it is very difficult for the new...

Definition of Cult Stocks

From a blog: A classification describing stocks that have a sizable investor following, despite the fact that the underlying company has somewhat insignificant fundamentals. Typically, investors are initially attracted to the company's potential and accumulate positions in speculation that its potential will be fulfilled, providing the investors with a substantial payout. While most of these cult stocks promise they will be the next big story after they make a new discovery or get the newest contract from the government, most do not provide investors with anything other than the story. Furthermore, these stocks typically generate very little, if any, revenue at all. For example, many micro-cap biotech stocks are cult stocks. While they promise that they are going to be working on a miracle compound or drug, most of them do not have any source of income as they slowly burn away their initial capital in research and development. However, some cult stocks do occasionally make good on...

The Road Not Taken

Robert Frost Two roads diverged in a yellow wood, And sorry I could not travel both And be one traveler, long I stood And looked down one as far as I could To where it bent in the undergrowth; Then took the other, as just as fair, And having perhaps the better claim, Because it was grassy and wanted wear; Though as for that the passing there Had worn them really about the same, And both that morning equally lay In leaves no step had trodden black. Oh, I kept the first for another day! Yet knowing how way leads on to way, I doubted if I should ever come back. I shall be telling this with a sigh Somewhere ages and ages hence: Two roads diverged in a wood, and I- I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference.